A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'Another Brexit', Experts Caution

A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."